Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2020. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2849z3.html. Air Force. This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines some of the most significant factors shaping military trends over the next ten to 15 years: changes in the size, quality, and character of military forces available to the United States and its potential adversaries. Where will the next war occur? However, these capabilities also come with serious risks that will need to be managed, and the United States will not have a monopoly on access to them. Specifically, it analyses how that relationship evolved during and after the Cold War, and extrapolates from current trends to speculate what impact war will have on the future evolution of the state. This research was sponsored by the United States Air Force and conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE. Despite the leveling playing field, China and Russia likely will prefer to achieve their objectives with the least cost in international reproach and the lowest risk of provoking military conflict with the United States. All military capabilities matter only to the extent that actors decide to use them. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research brief series. Taken together, these trends point to the fact that, as the 2018 National Defense Strategy argues, "competitive military advantage has been eroding" and, if unaddressed, will allow U.S. adversaries to exploit these weaknesses to their own advantages. Although successfully predicting the future of warfare is notoriously difficult, the U.S. military, for better or worse, is deeply invested in the forecasting business. The United States cannot afford to not develop artificial intelligence and other new technologies while China and Russia are pursuing them so aggressively. Hypersonic missiles. What are the implications for the U.S. Air Force and the future of warfare? U.S. leaders will need to find ways to maximize benefits while mitigating inevitable risks. Michael Howard, the eminent scholar and military strategist, once observed that the purpose of future gazing in war is not to get it right, but to avoid getting it terribly wrong. What changes are expected in the size, quality, and character of military forces available to the United States and its potential adversaries? The 2018 NDS directs a shift away from the counterterrorism focus of the “Global War on Terror” and back toward “great power competition”. In this issue: what Dstl’s Intelligent Ship competition tells us about the future of naval warfare, what to expect from this year's DSEI, views on emerging cybersecurity threats from the National Cyber Security Centre and industry, how pilots will train for sixth-generation fighter jets, the latest in covert threat detection, and more. This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines some of the most significant factors shaping military trends over the next ten to 15 years: changes in the size, quality, and character of military forces available to the United States and its potential adversaries. Restraints and geography trends, the increasing salience of lawfare, the wider distribution of imagery of military operations, and the growing urbanization of the global population all could affect warfare by 2030. Based on the trend analysis described in the study, and assuming that the United States will try to maintain its position as the world's preeminent global military superpower, the United States will face a series of deepening strategic dilemmas when confronting warfare from now through 2030. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. All told, the RAND team interviewed more than 120 different government, military, academic, and policy experts from more than 50 different institutions in Belgium, China, Germany, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Poland, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom (UK) for their perspectives on regional and global trends that might shape the future of conflict between now and 2030. According to Gen. Milley, “we’re going to have to, as we move forward in the next 10 years, optimize the army for urban warfare.” Battles in open terrain will increasingly be a thing of the past, as vast urbanization in developing countries is driving the majority of the world’s population into cities. U.S. quantitative and qualitative military advantages are diminishing, and the United States will have increasing difficulty controlling strategic outcomes. The first is the Panglossian view that technological change offers the potential for quick, decisive and (comparatively) clean victories over larger but more technologically-backward adversaries, as reflected in the ‘Revolution in Military Affairs’ debates that … The use of substate actors as proxy fighters in gray-zone strategies will continue weakening the state's monopoly on violence in many areas of the world. From the 64 discrete socio-political conditions described - Such conflicts will feature the use o… There is a need to maintain the economic wherewithal and the political will to sustain and prevail in future wars, especially wars against rival great powers, something that remains only partially in. A Delta IV rocket successfully launches the Global Positioning System IIF-5 satellite Feb. 20, 2014 from Space Launch Complex-37 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. Photo by United Launch Alliance/Ben Cooper. Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the issues that matter most. Why do predictions about the future of warfare usually fall flat? Russia has a new turret with a 30mm cannon and missile; that will be fitted onto their tracked vehicles and IFVs." Among the global economic trends, the first three increase the chances of future conflict, whereas the last three will shape how wars are fought. What are the major drivers of future conflict? about the future of warfare—specifically, those conflicts that will drive a U.S. and U.S. Air Force response—by examining the key geopo-litical, economic, environmental, geographic, legal, informational, and military trends that will shape the contours of conflict between now and 2030. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. It should be noted that future warfare including the trends in the technological development of conven-tional branches and services and even the blueprints in the stage of planning are expected to be dominated by the fight against terrorism. Military force designs therefore require an idea of what equipment is for and what a future conflict may look like – in military parlance, the Future Operating Environment. Increases in cyber and gray-zone conflict are likely. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.